2010/11/30

Britain goes from dystopia to Arcadia in six months

While we will be eating caviar as a mid-morning snack, other countries will be wandering down trains with a paper cup
The economic figures are looking good, the recovery is more or less on track, and George Osborne allowed himself a mini-gloatette in the Commons yesterday when he made his autumn statement.

I was reminded strongly of a previous chancellor, who also painted a picture of Britain in glowing, sun-drenched colours. When you listened to Gordon Brown, you felt that we lived in a new Arcadia, a land where happy folk, secure in their jobs and incomes, look forward to a golden future, compared to the miserable wretches who live elsewhere.

Why, according to George, our growth rate was predicted over the next few years to be higher than Germany, France, Japan, the US, the eurozone and the EU as a whole.
While we will be living in palaces and eating caviar as a mid-morning snack, those other countries will be wandering down trains with a mangy dog and a paper cup, begging for the price of a cup of tea.

What was more, his figures were from the OBR, the office of budget responsibility – an independent body! They happen to have painted the same lush landscapes Gordon Brown used to depict.

Mr Osborne got, perhaps, a little carried away. As the deficit went down, we were going to save £19bn more than had been forecast. That was £19bn that wouldn't be going to private bond-holders and foreign governments. (Boo, hiss, bond-holders and foreigners. British debt for British debtors!). The theme was that the government had done everything right at exactly the right time. They had taken "decisive" action; I lost track of how many times he used that word. There was a slight problem, in that he had followed the Irish course while, over the past few years, lavishly praising the Irish government. He adopted a cunning response to MPs who pointed this out. He ignored them.

"The plan is working!" he cried. He sounded like Goldfinger. You half-expected him to add: "And you, Mr Bond, will be dead. Now if you will excuse me, I have important business in hand."

Alan Johnson, who followed, was rumbustious and effective. Mr Osborne had taken an "unprecedented gamble". "The chancellor is in the casino, but he hasn't spun the wheel yet!" he said. Things were not looking up. Instead they were looking down. Estimates of growth might be good, but not as good as they had been.

"Growth is going south!" he barked. And the rise in VAT would increase unemployment by 250,000.

But if he was pessimistic, Andrew Tyrie, who chairs the Treasury select committee, was positively glum. The savings ratio had halved, he said, miserably. Never invite this man to your party. He would arrive in a black cape, halt the merrymaking, and announce that a team of traffic wardens was working outside. And that more than one unit of alcohol during the evening would cause lasting health damage.
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