2010/09/19

《衛報》:奧斯本債務削減方案遭到新質疑


《衛報》:奧斯本債務削減方案遭到新質疑英國財政大臣奧斯本(George Osborne)為英國量身打造的預算赤字削減方案近期遭到了極具影響力的智囊團Compass的質疑。他們警告稱,當前英國政黨正無疑是拿1000億英 鎊的資金為該國未來的經濟增速下賭注。奧斯本曾表示,刺激私有部門復蘇可能會縮小該國經濟萎縮帶來的差距。但對這一關鍵假定,Compass在發佈的一份 報告中對此提出質疑。他們表示,目前已有跡象顯示英國經濟增速在自今年夏季後就開始放緩。 

Chancellor accused of £100bn economic growth gamble by Compass

Report by Compass thinktank casts doubt on George Osborne's assumption that private sector investment will fill gap left by state
Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne
 
Thinktank Compass has said the chancellor, George Osborne, is taking a £100bn gamble with the UK economy. Photograph: Anthony Devlin/PA

 
George Osborne's plan to slash Britain's budget deficit came under fresh fire from the left today when the influential thinktank Compass warned that the coalition was taking a £100bn gamble on economic growth.

Amid signs the economy has weakened since the summer, a Compass report questioned the chancellor's key assumption that a revitalised private sector would fill the gap left by the shrinking state.

The report, The £100bn Gamble, says: "Everyone is agreed that growth is the only way out of this economic situation but the government's hope is that this will come about by simply creating 'space' for private initiative. It has an agenda for cuts but not for growth."

Osborne, using forecasts provided by the Office for Budget Responsibility, believes the economy will shrug off the effects of his austerity measures and grow by well over 2% on average for the next five years.

The chancellor says financial markets will be reassured by the government's plan to reduce the deficit and that this will keep interest rates low enough to stimulate private sector spending and investment. But contenders for the Labour leadership have been stepping up their pressure on the government's growth strategy in recent weeks following figures showing a slackening housing market, rising unemployment and a sharp fall in retail sales.

The Compass study said that if the government's "gamble" on the private sector failed and the economy grew by 1.3% on average, rather than by the 2%-plus expected, then the cumulative loss to Britain's economy over the course of the current parliament would be 6.7% of national output – or £94bn.
Zoe Gannon, one of the report's authors, said: "Over the medium to long term, a credible plan to reduce the deficit is necessary. This should balance sensible spending reductions in non-desirable public expenditure with growth-inducing investment in long-term green infrastructure, and a fair rebalancing of the tax system."

The report suggests an alternative to coalition's cuts involving a financial transactions tax, abolishing tax havens and a 50% income tax band at £100,000.

Gannon said the recovery was not secure and that by "focusing obsessively, almost recklessly, on the deficit this government risks damaging potential green shoots and private sector growth.

"A severe double dip appears unlikely but if the government cannot secure strong growth it will be sentencing this country to high unemployment and an increasingly stagnant economy."

Gannon said the 1.3% growth estimate made by Compass was "conservative" and higher than Japan had managed in its so-called "lost decade" following the collapse of its stock market bubble in the late 1980s. The Compass report said a failure of unregulated financial markets caused the crisis rather than state excess.

《金融時報》:歐盟對華展開反傾銷調查 
目前,歐盟相關當局已經對北京是否涉嫌不當向中國企業,如華為和中興通訊生產的數據機提供補助 事宜展開調查。據瞭解,此次調查是歐盟近期對華生產的軟體保護器展開的三項調查中的其中一項。均是在比利時數據機生產商OPTION提出申訴後做出的。因 為該公司近日提起了對中國傾銷數據機的申訴,稱中國無線數據機對歐洲的同類產品造成了負面影響,而Option是歐盟數據機的唯一生產商。 

《每日電訊報》:IMF闢謠稱未向愛爾蘭提供救助貸款 
對於近期市場傳言的國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)已經向愛爾蘭提供了救 助貸款一事,IMF在本月17日對外闢謠稱,此事純屬不實報導。據悉,這一謠傳 目前已經導致市場投資者幾近恐慌並將愛爾蘭的債務保險成本推至了歷史新高。目前愛爾蘭信貸違約互換(credit default swaps)已經上漲0.38個基點至4.25個基點,創出歷史新高。10年期國債收益率攀升31個基點至6.5%,比德國基準債務利率高出4.10個基 點。

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